The case for no-estimation: persuading devs and project funders alike

The case for no-estimation

There are few things that developers like less than estimation. An estimate is a prediction of future outcomes; it's a sketchy business for the software game. The problem isn't so much that estimates are unreliable, but that they morph into commitments. It's not always about the time and money needs of governance, but often its really a sort of power-play, a tactic to shift the burden of responsibility downstream, to the developer.

The no-estimation movement came along as a sort of rebellion against the tyranny standard estimation practice. Proponents, knowing that they face the monolithic opposition of convention, read out their manifesto like Martin Luther nailing his 95 Theses to the church door. This makes for good theater but it does little for those of use who have to continue to work inside the castle walls. What's needed is a case for no-estimation that helps dev teams deliver, and also appeals to people who fund the work.

Predictability in outcome is our common ground. In this talk, we'll frame the question of no-estimation in the context of standard estimation practice, and describe the principles that underly no-estimation, illustrated with example scenarios.

You can think of no-estimation along the lines of "serverless compute". We all know that serverless functions run on servers, and you shouldn't be shocked to learn that no-estimation practice doesn't do away with estimates, it just does away with time and money as the object of estimation. We'll show you how that works.

No-estimation is not an assault on governance. We need to frame the practices to make the business value evident. Time and money are derivative of throughput, so estimation practice that optimizes for throughput results in improved predictability of outcomes.

The skills that make you good at the no-estimation game will bring improved productivity and greater confidence for freelance developers, and can be a real game-changer in enterprise productivity.