Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction: what is this estimation thing?

As important as estimation is to setting customer/stakeholder expectations and ultimately to paying the bills, there is surprisingly little discussion about what makes for a sound estimation strategy.

Act I:  Concept of Measurement
Act II: Methods of Measurement
Act III: Practical technique’s for improving estimates

There’s an assumption that estimation is something that good developers should be good at, with the unspoken corollary that failure to meet estimates is somehow the mark of an amateur. Once burned, developers push back that they lack specification. Backlog refinement meetings are scheduled. Time is set aside for technical planning, with expectations set, but often the cycle is repeated, leading to the question, what is this estimation thing?

Project managers and developers are routinely asked to estimate ambiguity, such as making a fixed bid against unknown business objectives, or having to make firm commitments against changing scope.  Almost everything I read about software estimation isn’t really about estimation, but rather it is about process, and those are certainly important questions, because when we clarify what it needed, that will certainly help estimation.  Still, it doesn’t tell us anything about what estimation actually is or how to do it.

We find resistance to estimation because of the belief in some organizations that their problem is somehow uniquely complex, and we find resistance because of the belief that influential factors are simply not subject to estimation.  Let’s see if we can move past that.

The first part is focuses on the concept of measurement to clear up common misconceptions and focus thinking on a conception that opens up possibilities for meaningful estimates within the bounds of limited time.

The second part develops methods of measurement and how to apply different methods to various estimation scenarios, with a focus on a number of methods that are commonly misused in software estimation.

The final part walks through a number of specific techniques that can be applied in every day story estimation to validate and pressure-test estimates.  The focus is on practical techniques which also help illustrate what we’re trying to get at in developing an improved sense of size.
 

This is 30 minute session follows a story arc of estimation fundamentals.    A 90 minunte version of this session covers the same story arc, while providing opportunity to develop concepts more fully.  For example, in the 30 minute version, Story Points estimation is simply placed in context of other measurement methods, while the 90 min version provides opportunity to develop and compare parametric estimation with other methods.   

A discussion of #noestimation can only recieve a mention in the 30 min version.  In the extended format allows for discussion around this trending practice: what it really means, how it works and how it is commonly misunderstood.